Rabobank forecasts fishmeal production to improve, prices to decrease
13.12.2016 13:28:48
Rabobank forecasts fishmeal production to improve, prices to decrease
December 9, 2016, 6:40 am
Matilde Mereghetti
Rabobank expects the anchovy total allowable catch (TAC) in Peru will normalize to 2-3 million metric tons per season from 2017 onwards, the bank said.
In 2016, fishery in Peru was negatively impacted by El Nino, which brought global fishmeal production to a new low.
El Nino, which contributed to increase temperatures in 2015-2016 has declined since last July .
However, the expected recovery of fishery was delayed by biomass measurement issues, Rabobank said.
Additionaly, later in 2016 large numbers of juveniles have been preventing full utilization of the total allowable catch during the second fishing season, Rabobank said.
Consequently, yearly production in Peru should return to approximately 1-1.4m metric tons of fishmeal, Rabobank said.
The supply recovery in 2017 should limit the historical price growth trend, Rabobank said. screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-06-34-48
Price of fishmeal are likely to fluctuate between $1,200/ton to $1,600/t, according to Rabobank forecast.screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-06-34-59
"Larger TACs and a higher catch rate in Peru could cause further price weakness, although demand is also expected to recover," Rabobank said.
Chinese fishmeal demand is expected to increase due to the shrimp industry's recovery and overall growth of the aquaculture industry.
Resuming growth of the salmon industry in 2017 should also contribute to support fish meal demand, Rabobank said.
GENERAL PARTNER
OFFICIAL PARTNERS
SPECIAL PARTNERS
Support
Support
